众砖家谈iPhone4

六

2010

众砖家谈iPhone4

发布者: seasun

The Tuesday morning quarterbacks had a lot to say — mostly positive — about the new phone

周二上午一大群砖家争当事后诸葛亮，表示对苹果新公布的iPhone4手机有话要说，不过大部分评价都是正面的。

We got a handful of notes from Apple analysts including Piper Jaffray, Morgan Stanley and Forrester Research Monday afternoon after Steve Jobs’ keynote (See iPhone 4: The early reviews).

就在周一史蒂夫·乔布斯发表完主题演讲之后，派普·杰弗里（Piper Jaffray）、摩根·士丹利（Morgan Stanley ）和福雷斯特研究（Forrester Research ）等少数几家公司的苹果分析师们就发表了他们的看法。（见iPhone 4：早期评测）。

On Tuesday morning, we got a basketful. A sampling of what they had say, in roughly descending order of enthusiasm:

而到了周二上午，相关的评论就铺天盖地了。我们从中选取了几则，大致是按各分析师对此新闻的热情度进行降序排序：

Oppenheimer’s Yair Reiner: The dribble of leaks that preceded yesterday’s official unveiling of the iPhone 4 probably left some with the impression the new device offers nothing surprising or very new. Sound familiar? In fact, Apple’s (AAPL) latest refresh catapults the smartphone category forward along every axis of relevance to consumers: OS sophistication, speed, battery life, display resolution, video connectivity, and camera quality. If products like the HTC Incredible demonstrate that Apple’s competitors have significantly improved their game, the iPhone 4 suggests the stronger competition has sparked an almost fierce level of innovation at Apple. The competition is taking aim, but the target keeps moving faster. Reiterate Outperform and $320 PT.

券商奥本海默（Oppenheimer）分析师亚伊尔·赖纳（Yair Reiner）：昨天正式发布消息之前，关于iPhone4的只言片语就让人不太感兴趣，感觉没什么新鲜的东西。这话是不是听起来很耳熟？事实上，苹果（ AAPL ）最新的升级将智能手机相关的一切都丢给了消费者：复杂的操作系统、运行速度、电池寿命、显示分辨率、视频连接和照相质量。HTC 的Incredible手机已经表明，苹果的竞争对手取得了长足的进步。而iPhone4更是将苹果与竞争对手之间的创新竞争级别拉到了惨烈的高度。竞争正变得有针对性，但目标的变化也在不断加快。我们依然重申看好其公司股票，目标价位320美元。

BMO Capital’s Keith Bachman: We believe FaceTime (video calling) is a game changer and must-have feature that could provide huge upgrade potential, since FaceTime only works on the new iPhone 4. If we assume 20% of the approximate 50 million installed base upgrades to the new iPhone 4, then 10 million iPhones would be upgraded and replaced, which provides us with confidence in our September- and December-quarter unit forecasts of 10.2 million and 12.2 million, respectively.

BMO资本（BMO Capital）的基思·巴赫曼（Keith Bachman）：我们相信FaceTime（iPhone4的视频通话功能）将会改变市场游戏规则。因为这个功能只能在iPhone4上使用，所以可能会引发新一轮的手机大规模升级。如果我们假设大约5千万台iPhone中的20%会升级到iPhone4，那就意味着有1千万台的iPhone会被升级或是替换，这给了我们足够的信心预计相关数字在第三和第四季度会分别达到1020万和1220万。

Kaufman Bros.’ Shaw Wu: We believe the rich features, refinement, and higher build quality are worth noting and difficult to comprehend without seeing and using the new iPhone first-hand (which we had the pleasure of doing post keynote). … We believe the new iPhone 4 will likely drive upgrades here in the U.S. and sway some users to switch to AT&T (T).

券商考夫曼兄弟（Kaufman Bros）分析师肖·吴（Shaw Wu）：我们感觉iPhone4丰富的功能、经过改进和提高的工艺质量值得关注，不过没能直接看到和使用iPhone4（我们很乐意在这之后再发表看法），所以对这些概念的理解上还有困难……我们相信新的iPhone 4很可能会在美国引发升级潮，并使一部分用户转投AT&T。

Susquehanna’s Jeffrey Fidacaro: Video, video, video — Apple leaps ahead of the competition. In our view, Apple’s strategic focus on improving display, both rendering and resolution, along with video capture has been a key competitive advantage for the iPhone. Now, Apple takes another step ahead of the smartphone competition by also adding native video calling capability.

券商萨斯奎汉纳（Susquehanna）分析师杰弗里·菲达卡洛（Jeffrey Fidacaro）：视频、视频、视频，苹果在竞争中冲到了前面。在我们看来，苹果将战略重点放在了提高显示效果，既渲染效果和屏幕分辨率上。同时视频拍摄一直是iPhone的一个主要竞争优势。现在苹果给iPhone4增加了本地视频通话功能，在智能手机竞争中又先行一步。

BCG’s Colin Gillis: Like all things Apple, it’s not just the whiz-bang hardware of the ultra slim phone, display and battery — but the overall package including the ability to shoot, edit, and share HD movies. The other major showcase was the iOS operating system with its multi tasking and support for the iAds platform. We are disappointed that the phone is not going to be in stores until June 24th — after Father’s day.

波士顿咨询公司（BCG）分析师科林·吉利斯（Colin Gillis）：跟苹果的其他产品一样，iPhone4不仅是有纤薄的外观、更好的显示效果和更长的续航时间这些令人惊叹的硬件指标；而且还包括拍摄、编辑和分享高清电影的一整套解决方案。其他主要特色还包括iOS操作系统，iOS有多任务处理功能并搭载iAds平台。不过令我们失望的是这款手机是在6月24日，父亲节之后上架。

Thomas Weisel’s Doug Reid: Overall iPhone 4 meets but does not exceed our expectations for the device going into the event. Noting the absence of a new carrier announcement in the US and a June 24 shipment date for iPhone 4 (vs our prior expectations of early July) we are leaving our iPhone estimates unchanged at 8.59mn for the June Q and 12.08mn for the Sep Q. We reiterate our Overweight rating and price target of $340. … Although we expect iPhone to enjoy a steeper international ramp than prior iPhone launches (88 countries by the end of September), we expect US sales growth by comparison to lag prior launches as US consumers increasingly focus on network quality, where AT&T and AAPL clearly lag and where a growing field of Android choices continues to blunt the cutting edge of AAPL’s iPhone.

券商托马斯·威瑟尔（Thomas Weisel）分析师道格·里德（Doug Reid）：iPhone 4整体上和我们之前的预测吻合，但一些大事件却没有发生。注意到苹果并没有公布新的美国运营商和 iPhone4 6月24日的发行日期（我们先前预测会在7月初），我们将iPhone在第三季度销售量859万台的预计保持不变，第四季度预计是1208万台。我们依然重申增持其公司股票，目标价格为340美元……虽然我们预期iPhone4将受益于在更多的国家发行（12月底将在88个国家发行），但美国的销售相比增长将落后，因为美国消费者更多的将注意力集中在网络质量方面，而这是AT&T和苹果的短板，同时更多的Andriod手机可供选择也在继续削弱iPhone的领头地位。

Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore: Apple announced iPhone customers on AT&T will be allowed to upgrade 6 months early. We do not view this as benevolence but as a calculated move to lock-in customers with two year contracts prior to losing exclusivity. In addition, we believe AT&T’s entry data plan price cut from $30 (unlimited) to $15 (restricts downloads to 200MB) will drive incremental iPhone demand (lowering the user’s TCO). In aggregate, we believe the combination of the attractive form factor / functionality of the iPhone 4 and early upgrade option will drive robust iPhone 4 unit shipments. We view our 41M CY10 iPhone unit estimate as conservative… We believe the video calling feature (iPhone 4 to iPhone 4) will spur upgrades as the network effect encourages faster adoption (i.e. multiple family members may upgrade simultaneously). In addition, we expect FaceTime to be rolled out across many Apple products over time (iPads, etc).

德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）分析师克里斯·惠特莫尔（Chris Whitmore）：苹果宣布AT&T的iPhone用户可以提早6个月升级到iPhone4。我们并不认为这是仁慈的举动，而是精心策划的步骤，用两年合约来绑住消费者。此外我们认为 AT&T将数据流量套餐从30美元（无限制）下调到15美元（限制下载量为200MB），将推动iPhone需求的增长（降低了用户的总体拥有成本）。总的来说，iPhone4吸引人的外观/功能组合和提早升级方案，将推动iPhone 4的出货量。我们保守估计2010当年iPhone出货量将达到4100万…而视频电话功能（iPhone 4和iPhone 4之间）将形成网络效应，刺激消费者更快升级（例如多个家庭成员可能会同时升级）。此外，随着时间推移，预计FaceTime功能会应用到苹果的其他产品上（如iPad等）。

William Blair’s Ralph Schackart: In our view, following a blog preview of the hardware and Apple’s preview of the new software features (both occurring in April 2010), the major new iPhone features were largely expected (a front-facing camera, enabling video conferencing, improved screen resolution, and an iPad-like processor [A4], with a larger battery to extend battery life). The timely (June 24) release of the iPhone and positive comments on the iPad announcement give us further confidence in our estimates (36.9 million iPhones and 3.15 million iPads during fiscal 2010). We maintain our Outperform rating.

券商威廉·布莱尔（William Blair）分析师拉尔夫·沙卡特（Ralph Schackart）：我们认为，经过某博客对iPhone4硬件的扼要介绍和苹果对其软件新功能的介绍（两者都发生在2010年4月），iPhone4的主要新功能都备受关注（前置摄像头、实现视频会议功能、屏幕分辨率提高、与iPad一样的处理器[A4]、更大的电池更大的续航时间）。及时（6月24日）发布iPhone4，以及 iPad公布后的良好评价让我们对其未来充满信心（2010年财政年预计iPhone出货36.9万部，iPad出货315万部），我们维持对苹果股票的“看好”等级。

Morgan Keegan’s Travis McCourt: In sum, the WWDC announcements by Apple were as expected. The iPad download stats are remarkable, and may be the real story of the day, and the iPhone 4′s features are impressive, and will clearly allow it to maintain its dominance at the high end of the smartphone world. We had already built into our financial expectations iPhone shipments for June, and we will update our iPad estimates (which need to be higher at this point) and adjust for recent currency fluctuations over the next few weeks.

券商摩根·基冈（Morgan Keegan）分析师查韦斯·麦科特（Travis McCourt）：总体来说，苹果在WWDC大会上宣布的消息符合预期。iPad下的下载数据令人瞩目，差不多创造了历史。而iPhone 4的功能也令人印象深刻，并很明显将占据智能手机市场的高端领域。我们已经建立6月iPhone出货时的财政预期，我们会随时更新对iPad的估计（应该会高一点），并在接下来几个礼拜里调整近期币值波动。